June 2022 Edition - The Next Ten Years in Central North Carolina

I have told investors for several years that Central North Carolina (the Triad) was a great place to invest in multifamily properties.  I have tried to explain that while Charlotte and the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill (Triangle) areas are the current kings and, as a result, a little more expensive to invest in, the Triad is located halfway between the two and connected to them by an excellent interstate system that also provides access to the entire eastern seaboard of the U.S.  Well, the future is here and the Triad is finally being recognized as one of the top three markets to invest in North Carolina.

The next ten years in Central North Carolina looks bright despite current economic concerns over inflation, stagflation, pending recession and governmental interference.  Our population continues to grow as new job opportunities abound.  Two recent articles published in the Triad Business Journal, “20 projects that will reshape Triad’s economy, landscape through 2030” (John Braiser, Reporter) and “Once obscure, Carolina Core said to be becoming North Carolina’s new economic engine” (David Hill, Report) really tell the story.  Below is a summary of these two articles “Just-in-Case-You-Missed-It.”

The Carolina Core, a name that was created by the Piedmont Triad Partnership, is a 120-mile stretch of U.S. Highway 421 (future Interstate 685) and surrounding counties that connects central North Carolina from Winston-Salem in the west to Fayetteville in the east.  The Core is defined by the assets that make the region a globally competitive market – a talent pool of more than 2 million people, access to 30+ colleges and universities with 250,000 students, multiple airports, four megasites totaling 2,200 acres of certified land, urban research parks, and more.  Since January 2021 through this past April, there have been announcements of 17,400 new jobs and $7.8 billion in capital investment in this 17-county area.

The top 20 include:

Toyota Motor North America’s lithium battery plant:  This will be the first electric-vehicle battery factory in North America.  Area Development magazine gave Toyota’s planned plant at the Greensboro-Randolph megasite near Liberty its manufacturing Platinum Shovel Award in recognition of its plans to invest $1.3 billion in Phase I and create 1,750 jobs.  A proposed Phase II, the company has said, could bring a total of $3.4 billion of investment and 3,875 jobs.  The project will instantly create jobs paying $62,234 above the average in the Triad.  Development is underway.  Groundbreaking is expected this summer, with operations to begin in 2025.

VinFast:  VinFast, a Vietnamese auto maker startup, announced its plan In March of this year to build electric vehicles at the Triangle Innovation Point megasite in northeastern Chatham County (northeastern Chatham County is technically part of the Triangle).  Headquartered in Los Angles the firm plans to sell their cars in the U.S.  they will invest at least $2 billion in the first phase of construction, targeting an initial capacity of 150,000 units per years.  Construction will begin this year with production starting in July 2024.

Boom Supersonic Overture Superfactory:  Boom Supersonic announced in January that they will build their new supersonic commercial jetliner “Overture” at the Piedmont Triad International Airport.  The Overture will be the replacement for the now retired Concorde, which made its last flight in 2003.  This will be a $500 million investment and will result in 1,760 new jobs paying an average of $69,000.  Hiring is to begin in 2023.

Publix Distribution Center:  A massive distribution complex of 1.1 million square-feet of refrigerated warehouse, 1.3 million square-feet of dry goods warehouse and 120,000 square-feet of food manufacturing facility to supply Publix stores in North Carolina and Virginia is under construction on the east side of Greensboro.  The project is a $400 million investment for Publix.  When complete the facility will create 1,000 jobs paying an average of $44,000.  

Nucor Rebar Steel Mill:  A new Nucor Corporation steel mill on approximately 220 acres near Lexington will be designed to produce 430,000 tons of rebar annually and is expected to employ 200 people at an average wage of nearly $100,000.  This will be Nucor’s third mill dedicated to producing rebar, which is used to reinforce concrete in the construction of roads, buildings and bridges.  Construction is expected to begin by September, with completion expected within 18 months.

Piedmont Commerce Center:  NorthPoint Development, a private developer from Kansas City, Missouri, will build four industrial specs totaling 1.5 million square feet in the Kernersville area.  The first building will be 669,110 square feet, followed by buildings of 274,944, 246,489, and 312,384 square feet.  Total investment will be 129 million.  Completion of the project is in 2023.

Davie Industrial Center:  The first building of the planned 1-million-square-feet Mocksville industrial complex has been constructed and leased to Haywood Holdings.  The building is 324,000-square-feet with 32-foot ceilings.  The second building, a 500,000-square-foot industrial spec with 36-foot ceilings, is under construction and expected to be completed by the first quarter of 2023.  A third industrial build-to-suit spec building of 180,000 square-feet will follow when a tenant is identified.

North Carolina I-85 Center:  Samet Corporation has a 773-acre park on the south side of I-85 on the western edge of Davidson County that has a capacity of 5 million square-feet under roof.  A conceptual site plan shows 20 buildings of various sizes in a park that adjoins I-85 Corporate Center, the location of Egger Wood Products.  Combined, the two parks comprised a former planned 1,100-acre megasite before the Egger occupied portion was developed into a megapark.  The first building on the NC I-85 Center Park is planned in late 2022 with development of the entire park to take 20 to 25 years.

Whitaker Park:  Brennan Investment Group is developing a new state-of-the-art 110,000-square-foot Class A industrial building on the 220-acre former RJ Reynolds headquarters campus in Winston-Salem.  The 13 buildings currently on the property contain 1.2 million square feet of industrial space.  The property was gifted to Whitaker Park Development Authority, has been repurposed and are in redevelopment.  Included in the redevelopment plans are two buildings converted to 164 loft apartments to be followed by a second phase of new construction with 125 additional apartments, a 125-room hotel and 25,000 square feet of retail.  Combined investment $100 million.  The Whitaker Parks Lofts Apartments are scheduled to open this summer with new construction to be completed by the end of the year.

Innovation Quarter:  Located in Winston-Salem, Innovation Quarter, currently has 4.7 million gross square feet, including parking structures and residential along with about 2.1 million square feet of office, clinical and laboratory space. A new phase, called IQ2 and developed by Wexford Science+Technology, calls for 10 buildings, with 2.7 million additional square feet of clinical laboratory, office and residential units.  This new phase is centered on Fogle Commons, a linear park designed to host large scale activities such as musical and arts performances, academic and corporate events and recreation.  Atrium Health Wake Forest Baptist will build an eye institute in IQ2, projecting to serve about 90,000 patients per year.

Metropolitan Village:  Also located in Winston-Salem, Metropolitan Village is a two-phase project planned to include housing, spaces devoted to workforce training, urgent care and possibly daycare.  Phase I is planned to include three four-story buildings with 199 housing units.  Phase II will bring the total number of units to 324 on the 8.2-acre site.  30,310 square feet of office and 9,500 square feet of additional reality are also planned for the site.  Investment is expected to be $60 million.

Th Outfields:  The Outfields is a planned five-building downtown High Point project to be constructed behind Truist Point Stadium.  The first building, a 42,000 square-foot combined office, retail and apartments building has been constructed and houses a food hall and Key Risk Insurance Company.  When completed, the total complex will represent a $210 million investment.

High Point University 10-year plan for construction:  A $400 million construction plan, this project will include for High Point University a new library, buildings for new dental and law schools, an admissions center and an NCAA Division One ice hockey arena.  The plan also calls for schools for nursing, entrepreneurship, and optometry, as well as new student housing and a parking garage.

South Rockingham Industrial Park:  A 176,000 square-foot industrial spec building is under construction at the South Rockingham Industrial Park in Rockingham County south of Greensboro.  The building is to be completed later this year.

Carroll Ballpark South:  This is a new Carroll Companies project for Greensboro that will include a 150-room AC Hotel, 280 apartments, and 30,000 square feet of retail and meeting space.  Total investment in the project is expected to be $140 million.

The Westin Greensboro Hotel:  A 180-room upscale hotel built atop of a five-story, 720 vehicle city parking garage is under construction.  The parking deck is scheduled to be completed by late summer with construction of the hotel to begin later in the year and be completed in 2023.  Total investment is $50 million.

Amazon South Elm:  An Amazon fulfillment center is to be built on a 99-acre tract on the south side of Greensboro.  It is estimated that the facility will employ 1,000 people when completed.  The investment is estimated at more than $200 million.

The Resurgent:  At an investment of $60 million, the N.C. A&T Foundation plans to construct a 75,642 square-foot mixed-use development that will include apartments and retail space in east Greensboro near the N.C. A&T campus.  The initial phase will include ground floor local retail shops and restaurants, as well as Class A office space and a parking deck.  Together with neighboring Bailey Village at Downtown East, a large complex that is nearing completion, The Resurgent will provide new affordable housing in east Greensboro where it is critically needed.  The shops and restaurants will also fill a void in an area that has had few economic development projects in the last 30 years.

Sedalia Revitalization:  Sedalia, NC is a small North Carolina community located between Greensboro to the west and Burlington to the east on Highway 70.  Greensboro and Burlington are growing together along this corridor and adjacent I-85 as is reflected by the development of the new Publix distribution center just west of Sedalia.  The Sedalia Revitalization project involves a plan for 800 to 1,000 housing units in Sedalia on 145 acres along Highway 70.  The plan calls for single-family and multifamily homes, the creation of a 3.5-acre park, retail, and a new town hall.  Timeline for development is 4 to 8 years.

Gibsonville Square:  Gibsonville is another small community located between Greensboro and Burlington.  A $40 million project is planned here to convert a 440,000 square-foot former cotton mill into 130 apartments, an arts/entertainment/dining area and a yet to be determined additional multifamily housing property.

United Parcel Service distribution and deliver center:  This 510,000 square-foot distribution and delivery center will be located at N.C. Commerce Park in Mebane.  When combined with a $54.2 million equipment expansion at the UPS distribution hub on the south side of Greensboro, this project will be a boast for jobs in the area.  In an incentive agreement with the state, UPS has committed to creating 451 full-time jobs paying an average of $65,147 and 1,090 permanent part-time jobs in Mebane.

The above are only the biggest projects that have been announced since January 2021.  The combined investment value of these projects is $7.8 billion.  The combined projects will create 17,400 jobs.  These numbers do not include the additional value created by the multiplier effect from businesses that will be generated by the presence of the top projects.

The next 10 years in Central North Carolina and beyond looks very strong.

“Just-In-Case You Missed It” is a monthly letter prepared for multifamily owners and prospective owners.  It is a compilation of multiple articles from multiple sources or a reprint of an article from a specific source (source credit given).  Its purpose is to present both facts and opinions that may influence our multifamily business in the Southeastern U.S. If you have any questions and/or would like to discuss any of the comments above, my conclusions or your multifamily business, please contact me at your convenience.  I can be a valuable resource to you without adding expense to your budget.  I look forward to speaking with you and having an opportunity to meet with you.  I am always at your disposal to assist you with your multifamily business.  If you would like to review previous editions of my monthly “Just-In-Case You Missed It” letter they are posted on my website, www.rickbakermultifamily.com

Respectfully,  

Rick

G.F. Rick Baker, CCIM 

Multifamily Specialist/Investment Advisor 

www.RickBakerMultifamily.com 

2504 Tinderbox Ln.

Greensboro, NC 27455

Cell: 336.549.6083 

Email: rickbakermultifamily@gmail.com 

Per NC Real Estate Law, please review the   "Working with Real Estate Agents"  agency disclosure.  We are available to discuss the contents of the disclosure after you have had an opportunity to review.

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May 2022 Edition - The Tide has Turned